Tournament: SEPT-OCT Util AC | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
Advantage 1: Oil Subsidies
A. Uniqueness:
Republicans and lobbyists fight and win for big oil despite the public’s will. Froomkin ‘11:
Clout in Washington isn't about winning legislative battles -- it's about making sure that they never happen at all. The oil and gas industry has that kind of clout. Despite astronomical profits during what have been lean years for most everyone else, the oil and gas industry continues to and benefit from massive, multi-billion dollar taxpayer subsidies. Opinion polling shows the American public overwhelmingly wants them those subsidies eliminated. Meanwhile, both parties are hunting feverishly for ways to reduce the deficit. But when President Obama called on Congress to eliminate about $4 billion a year in tax breaks for Big Oil earlier this year, the response on the Hill was little more than a knowing chuckle. Even Obama's closest congressional allies don't think the president’s proposal has a shot. "I would be surprised if it got a great deal of traction," Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), chairman of the Senate energy committee, told reporters at the National Press Club a few days after Obama first announced his plan. Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), co-author of a House bill that closely resembles Obama's proposal, nevertheless acknowledges that it has slim chances of passing. "It will be a challenge to get anything through the House that includes any tax increase for anyone under any circumstance," he told The Huffington Post. The list goes on: "It's not on my radar," said Frank Maisano, a spokesman for Bracewell Giuliani, a lobbying firm with several oil and gas industry clients. "It's old news and it's never going to happen in this Congress. It couldn't even happen in the last Congress." Indeed, the oil and gas industry's stranglehold on Congres is so firm that even when the Democrats controlled both houses, repeal of the subsidies didn't stand a chance. Obama proposed cutting them in his previous two budgets as well, but the Senate -- where Republicans and consistently pro-oil Louisiana Democrat Mary Landrieu had more than enough votes to block any legislation -- never even took a stab at it. Now that the GOP controls the House is controlled by the GOP, so Obama's proposal is deader than an oil-soaked pelican. Over the last decade in particular, the Republican Party's anti-tax policies and pro-drilling campaign is rhetoric have become nearly indistinguishable from those of Big Oil.
B. Links:
() CV solves lobbying. Harvard Law ‘07:
In addition to the direct effect of compulsory voting on turnout, there are also several indirect benefits. First, compulsory voting would reduce the role of money in politics.35 Political parties would not spend as much money on their get-out-the-vote efforts since high turn- out would already be ensured and would b e fairly inelastic.36 Some of the get-out-the-vote money could be shifted to other forms of cam- paign spending, but not all of it. A significant amount of spending on getting out the vote comes from groups known as 527s (a reference to the tax code) and nonpartisan groups that are not subject to campaign finance laws.37 These groups are limited in their abilities to campaign expressly in favor of candidates.38 Presumably, these organizations would shift some funds from getting out the vote to issue ads (which are permissible), but their diminishing returns marginal effectiveness of those ads would limit this. With less this implicit limit on spending, politicians and parties might focus somewhat less on fundraising and be less beholden to donors.
() Republicans have less power in cv. Bloomberg ‘12:
One concern -- voiced primarily by Republicans -- is that compulsory voting would raises participation rates among Democrats, because minority and low-income voters are among those least likely to go to the polls.
() Froomkin established public support to end subsidies. CV means their voices are actualized. Hill ’01:
The third practical concern Saunders raises is that compulsory voting is unable to address one of the root causes of low turnout: alienation (Saunders, 2010, p. 71) (curiously, this appears to involve an admission on Saunders’ part that it is alienation rather than being ‘unaffected’ that is a major cause of abstention, thereby negating one of his key arguments against compulsory voting). While it could never be claimed that compulsory voting is a universal panacea for all the problems that beset democracy, it has been found to have ‘a strong and significant impact on satisfaction with democracy’ (Birch, 2009a, p. 113). It also seems to stimulate other forms of political participation. Compulsory voting is even correlated with lower levels of political corruption (Birch, 2009b, p. 140), an effect that undoubtedly helps to keep political alienation at bay. From a normative perspective, if we accept, as I do, the legitimacy of the ‘all affected interests’ principle, and agree that – as far as possible – undemocratic distortions should be eliminated from the electoral system, then empirical trends in both voting behaviour and government responsiveness point us towards rather than away from compulsory voting. Empirical data also undercut Saunders’ practical objections to compulsory voting since requiring people to vote has been shown to provide the only decisive and effective solution to low turnout; further, it appears to ameliorate political alienation.
C. Impact: Oil subsidies invigorate global warming and hurt switch to renewable energy. IMF ’13:
Energy subsidies have wide-ranging economic consequences. While aimed at protecting consumers, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd-out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. Subsidies over also distort resource allocation by encourageing excessive energy consumption, artificially promoteing capital-intensive industries, reduceing incentives for investment in renewable energy, and accelerating the depleteion of natural resources. Most subsidy benefits are captured by higher-income households, reinforcing inequality. Even future generations are affected through the damaging effects of increased energy consumption on increasing global warming. This paper provides:
the most comprehensive estimates of energy subsidies currently available for 176 countries; and (ii) an analysis of ?how to do? energy subsidy reform, drawing on insights from 22 country case studies undertaken by IMF staff and analyses carried out by other institutions.
Climate change outweighs on time frame and causes war. Global Solutions:
Global climate change is an immediate and important issue that must be addressed by all nations multi-laterally. The effects are of climate change - rising temperatures and sea-levels, shrinking glaciers, changes in range and distribution of plants and animals, changing precipitation patterns, and more intense heat waves are likely to worsen if countries do not reduce their greenhouse gases. Climate change has contributed to a rising demand in critical resources and mass migration-both of which have caused social unrest and armed conflict. Some of these effects of climate change are being felt around the world, for example droughts have exacerbated conflicts and humanitarian disasters in Darfur and Somalia. Thus, the global challenge of climate change constitutes both a security and economic threat for the United S musttates. Averting the projected impacts of climate change requires a global effort, and a shift from an economy dependent on fossil fuel combustion to one powered by clean renewable energy. As one of the leading world economy and biggest producer of greenhouse gases, the U.S. must play a leadership role in tackling this global challenge and mitigate its effects on vulnerable populations. The current administration Obama has initiated some policies and initiatives but they are still falling fall short of what is needed to address the disastrous consequences of climate change.
Climate change causes extinction and outweighs on irreversibility and empirical verfiability. Dyer ‘12:
Here's how bad it could get. The scientific consensus is that we are still on track for 3 degrees C of warming by 2100, but that's just warming caused by human greenhouse- gas emissions. The problem is that +3 degrees is well past the point where the major feedbacks kick in: natural phenomena triggered by our warming, like melting permafrost and the loss of Arctic sea-ice cover, that will add to the heating and that we cannot turn off. The trigger is actually around 2C (3.5 degrees F) higher average global temperature. After that we lose control of the process: ending our own carbon- dioxide emissions would no longer be enough to stop the warming. We may end up trapped on an escalator heading up to +6C (+10.5F), with no way of getting off. And +6C which gives you the mass extinction. There have been five mass extinctions in the past 500 million years, when 50 per cent or more of the species then existing on the Earth vanished, but until recently the only people taking any interest in this were paleontologists, not climate scientists. They did wonder what had caused the extinctions, but the best answer they could come up was "climate change". It wasn't a very good answer. Why would a warmer or colder planet kill off all those species? The warming was caused by massive volcanic eruptions dumping huge quantities of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for tens of thousands of years. But it was very gradual and the animals and plants had plenty of time to migrate to climatic zones that still suited them. (That's exactly what happened more recently in the Ice Age, as the glaciers repeatedly covered whole continents and then retreated again.) There had to be a more convincing kill mechanism than that. The paleontologists found one when they discovered that a giant asteroid struck the planet 65 million years ago, just at the time when the dinosaurs died out in the most recent of the great extinctions. So they went looking for evidence of huge asteroid strikes at the time of the other extinction events. They found none. What they discovered was that there was indeed major warming at the time of all the other extinctions - and that the warming had radically changed the oceans. The currents that carry oxygen- rich cold water down to the depths shifted so that they were bringing down oxygen- poor warm water instead, and gradually the depths of the oceans became anoxic: the deep waters no longer had any oxygen. When that happens, the sulfur bacteria that normally live in the silt (because oxygen is poison to them) come out of hiding and begin to multiply. Eventually they rise all the way to the surface over the tops of the whole ocean, killing all the oxygen-breathing life. The ocean also starts emitsting enormous amounts of lethal hydrogen sulfide gas that destroy the ozone layer and directly poison land-dwelling species. This has happened before many times in the Earth's history.
Adv 2: Gun Control
A. Uniqueness: Private background checks failed, but still has support. Miller ten days ago:
After the vote on the Manchin-Toomey amendment to expand background checks to private transactions failed, the president was enraged. Mr. Obama disregarded the possibility that pro-gun senators may simply believe in the Bill of Rights. Defiant, he said it was a “pretty shameful day for Washington” and promised “this effort is not over.”
NRA prevents the passage. Politico ’13:
Wayne LaPierre may have more blood on his hands than Dracula, but — fair is fair — he also has the guts of a burglar. He will say anything to advance the agenda of the National Rifle Association, which he runs, and he doesn’t worry about his critics. Under his leadership, the NRA has grown and today is one of the most feared lobbies on Capitol Hill. I should point out that, unlike Dracula, LaPierre neither kills people nor drinks their blood. It is just my personal belief that the NRA’s gun mania has led to the slaughter of thousands of innocent men, women and children in this country. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is now spending $12 million of his own money on TV ads to combat the NRA and LaPierre. The ads are calm and reasonable. In one, a hunter in a plaid shirt, cradling a shotgun, says, “I support comprehensive background checks so criminals and the dangerously mentally ill can’t buy guns.” But to LaPierre “calm and reasonable” is the same as “weak.” Bloomberg “can’t spend enough of his $27 billion to try to impose his will on the American public,” LaPierre sneered on “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “They don’t want him telling them what food to eat; they sure don’t want him telling them what self-defense firearms to own. And he can’t buy America!” All anyone really has to buy, however, is Congress. LaPierre knows how to intimidates senators with. He tells them that the “NRA’s nearly 5 million members and America’s 100 million gun owners” will not vote for legislators in 2014 who are trying to grab their assault rifles, limit the size of their ammo clips or create universal background checks that will, as LaPierre tells them, lead the government “to tax” and “to take” their weapons. To LaPierre, the war over guns is a class war. “Political elites” he said in a recent speech, “insult, denigrate and call us crazy. In their distorted view of the world, they are smarter than we are. They are special and more worthy than we are.” LaPierre doesn’t always win.
B. Link: Compulsory voting means passing rational gun laws. Prefer on specificity. AP one month ago:
In an interview earlier this year, former Prime Minister Julia Gillard cited the United States’ voluntary voting system as one reason explains why stricter gun control measures failed to pass Congress. “Compulsory voting is a precious, precious thing and it makes our politics the politics of the mainstream,” Gillard told Sydney’s Inner West Courier. “If you ask yourself the question how come? Well, in the U.S. they can’t have rational gun laws. A big explanation of that is voluntary voting, where small, highly motivated minorities can distort a whole political debate.”
The NRA prevents us from passing stricter gun control, but making voting compulsory means more moderate voters would counter-act the highly organized NRA’s 5 million members making gun control easier politically.
C. Impact:
Failure to pass this amendment helps terrorists and drug cartels. NY Times ’12:
But the law does not cover private sales of guns, including transactions by “occasional sellers” at gun shows and flea markets, in what has become a This gaping loophole that has allowsed teenagers, ordinary criminals, terrorists, and Mexican drug cartels and arms traffickers to have easy access to weapons. For instance, firearms are bought at gun showswere used in the Columbine school shooting; they have been found in a shippedment of arms supplies to the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah; and they have made their way across the border to Mexico.
Drug cartels cause wmd terror; it’s a vicious cycle since they keep helping each other. Shingal 11:
The fourth and final contention as to why the US should further aid Mexico is the risk of a link developing between the Latin American drug cartels and the Islamic terrorists in the Middle East. While such linkages may not exist yet, there is currently concern in and around Washington that groups such as Hezbollah and especially Al Qaeda are beginning to take interest in what is occurring in Mexico. In fact, the Mexican drug cartels already have a relatively established link with Hezbollah, which has long been involved with the South American drug trade. As the drug trade has steadily moved north to Mexico, Hezbollah’s influence has come disturbingly closer to the American border. That influence, when combined with the fact that the American border is very porous and the possibility of a Hezbollah sponsored terrorist attack on US soil, makes many US officials uneasy. According to Michael Braun, a former assistant administrator and chief of operations at the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), Hezbollah uses ?the same criminal weapons smugglers, document traffickers and transportation experts as the drug cartels… Hezbollah will leverage those relationships to their benefit, to smuggle contraband and humans into the US; in fact, they already are smuggling.? 181 Similarly, some Al Qaeda has leaders have also indicated an interest in using drug tunnels to help launch a terrorist attack on United States soil. Following the attack on September 11th, the United States has taken a number of steps to protect itself from terrorist attacks. These have included increasing security in airports and train stations as well as paying closer attention to people entering and leaving the country. However, despite all of these improvements, the drug cartels are still able to smuggle drugs into the country at an alarmingly high rate. Unfortunately, terrorists around the world have noticed: Abdullah al-Nafisi, a high ranking Al Qaeda recruiter, stated, ?Four pounds of anthrax…carried by a fighter through tunnels from Mexico into the US are guaranteed to kill 330,000 Americans…there is no need for airplanes, conspiracies, timings and so on.? 182 As the cartels are only interested in their financial bottom line, there is no reason why they should not allow other groups to use their routes to enter the United States if the other groups were willing to pay – and Al Qaeda would certainly have no qualms about paying any amount of money if they were promised untraceable access into the US. As one US law enforcement officer noted, ?That’s why the border is such a serious national security issue.? 183 There are two problems with which the United States will have to contend if the link between the terrorists and cartels becomes too strong. The first is a problem of money; terrorist groups could start using the profits of drug smuggling could to fund terrorist their anti-American operations. Despite America's diplomatic and military efforts both Hezbollah and Al Qaeda remain able to maintain themselves financially. American efforts to cut off their funding would only become more difficult if those groups became closely affiliated with the highly profitable drug cartels. If the terrorists are able to establish a drug trade through Mexico, American drug users would in effect be supporting the United States' military‘s enemy. By not sufficiently addressing the Mexican drug smuggling issue, the US is thus leaving the door open for terrorist groups to profit, which in turn could lead to further attacks. The second and most distressingly issue is that the terrorists could use Mexican drug trafficking routes to launch attacks in the continental United States. Based on the condition of the Mexican state and the inability of the United States to sufficiently protect its border, it is not difficult to imagine Al Qaeda operatives successfully infiltrating the country. Moreover, it is equally possible that such an operative could smuggle parts of a bomb or a suitcase full of anthrax through the same tunnels which funnel thousands of pounds of marijuana and cocaine into the US yearly. The United States cannot afford to take chances with American lives at stake. Although there is no proof that a terrorist plot will occur via Mexico, the possibility alone should drive the US government to take steps to finally rein in the drug cartels by bolstering its aid to the Mexican government. By not doing so, the US is leaving itself open to a very uncertain future – a future where it may find itself having to fight wars in the Middle East and protect itself from terrorist attacks launched via imperceptible tunnels across its own border.
Terror attack means human extinction. Nathan ’13:
The novelty of our present situation is that modern technology can provide small groups of people with much greater lethality than ever before. We now have to worry that private parties might gain access to weapons that?are as destructive as—or possibly even more destructive than—those held by any nation-state. A handful of people, perhaps even a single individual, now have the ability to kill millions or even billions. Indeed, it is perfectly feasible, from a technological standpoint, to kill every man, woman, and child on earth. The gravity of the situation is so extreme that getting the concept across without seeming silly or alarmist is challenging. Just thinking about the subject with any degree of seriousness numbs the mind.¶ Worries about the future of the human race are hardly novel. Indeed, the notion that terrorists or others might use weapons of mass destruction terror is so commonplace as to be almost passé. spy novels, movies, and television dramas explore this plot frequently. We have become desensitized to this entire genre, in part because James Bond always manages to save the world in the end.
Part 5) Theory First, decide the round with an offense/defense paradigm. The ballot must weigh aff offense against neg offense stemming from their in one unconditional post-fiat policy advocacy since A) Ground. This forces the neg to only make arguments where the aff can weigh or win offense to, preventing nbibs, which creates a 2:1 ground skew. Ground skew’s bad for fairness since we need arguments to win. B) Clash. Force the neg to engage, else they just perpetuate the mindset of side-stepping good AC’s. Clash is key to education since it reinforces knowledge and find flaws even in good cases. C) Empirics. Policy debate uses a similar paradigm and they agree it’s worked well; it’s their norm. Any neg argument is untested and gets less credence. D) Strat. If they can preclude the AC and 1ar positions through tricks, they kill my strat. Strat skew bad for fairness since debate’s a game and requires strategy to win. Second, accept an aff interp if the neg can link in stock positions. This is a good bright line since stock cases are stock BECAUSE they have strong topic lit and good ground. Prefer since A) Changing aff interps by the 1ar kills full AC strat and 6 minutes. This hurts the aff way more than the interp hurts the neg. B) there are always multiple legit interps, so deter theory since I’ll always violate. There’s no abuse. C) The neg can adapt to aff interps and framework, giving them a strategic advantage. X-apply strat-skew. Reasonability coheres with RVI’s since reasonability just protects subpar aff interps, not bad neg ones. And if you think my theoy or T interps are abusive, that’s an RVI not a voter since I haven’t violated your shell yet by acting on the interp.
1:20
Part 6) T-interps I define “ought” as consequentialism. A) Most real world. Knowing how to do net benefit calculus is useful for jobs and is better liked by society. Real world is the most key to education since states only fund schools for the economy, not to think about gibberish. B) Common usage. Every think tank that informs policy-making looks to concrete utilitarian harms and that’s what people do too when they consider policy. Common usage is key to fairness because not all debaters have access to ridiculous philosophy books or esoteric definitions. This is structural reciprocity and outweighs on scope since it affects A LOT of people in this country, not just a hundred debaters. C) The topic. We need to talk about the topic since talking about Kant and morals every round of our debate career is uneducational. ALSO, philosophy debates encourage dumb tricks your opponent cant realize because they’re too busy trying to answer the framework or can’t see through smokes and mirrors of esoteric rhetoric. Preventing possible ground skew is also key to fairness. We need to make sure cases are fair. Last, ought is a word in the resolution. So it’s up for the same T-debates like any other word in the resolution. This isn’t AFC, it’s about definitions, which the neg can contest.
() Truth is a social agreement aimed to preserve us, not to know things-in-themselves. Nietzsche:
And when it is all over with the human intellect, nothing will have happened. For this intellect has no additional mission which would cant lead it beyond human life since. Rather, it is human, and only its possessor and begetter takes it so solemnly-as though the world's axis turned within it. But if we could communicate with the gnat, we would learn that he likewise flies through the air with the same solemnity, that he feels the flying center of the universe within himself. There is nothing so reprehensible and unimportant in nature that it would not immediately swell up like a balloon at the slightest puff of this power of knowing. And just as every porter wants to have an admirer, so even the proudest of men, the philosopher, supposes that he sees on all sides the eyes of the universe telescopically focused upon his action and thought. It is remarkable that this was brought about by the intellect, which was certainly allotted to these most unfortunate, delicate, and ephemeral beings merely as a device for detaining them a minute within existence. For without this addition they would have every reason to flee this existence as quickly as Lessing's son. The pride connected with knowing and sensing lies like a blinding fog over the eyes and senses of men, thus deceiving them concerning the value of existence. For this pride contains within itself the most flattering estimation of the value of knowing. Deception is the most general effect of such pride, but even its most particular effects contain within themselves something of the same deceitful character. As a means for the preserving of the individual, the intellect unfolds its principle powers in dissimulation, which is the means by which so weaker, less robust individuals preserve themselves-since they have been denied the chance to wage the battle for existence with horns or with the sharp teeth of beasts of prey, This art of dissimulation reaches its peak in man. Deception, flattering, lying, deluding, talking behind the back, putting up a false front, living in borrowed splendor, wearing a mask, hiding behind convention, playing a role for others and for oneself-in short, a continuous fluttering around the solitary flame of vanity-is so much the rule and the law among men that there is almost nothing which is less comprehensible than how an honest and pure drive for truth could have arisen among them. They are deeply immersed in illusions and in dream images; their eyes merely glide over the surface of things and see "forms." Their senses nowhere lead to truth; on the contrary, they are content to receive stimuli and, as it were, to engage in a groping game on the backs of things. Moreover, man permits himself to be deceived in his dreams every night of his life. His moral sentiment does not even make an attempt to prevent this, whereas there are supposed to be men who have stopped snoring through sheer will power. What does man actually know about himself? Is he, indeed, ever able to perceive himself completely, as if laid out in a lighted display case? Does nature not conceal most things from him-even concerning his own body-in order to confine and lock him within a proud, deceptive consciousness, aloof from the coils of the bowels, the rapid flow of the blood stream, and the intricate quivering of the fibers! She threw away the key. And woe to that fatal curiosity which might one day have the power to peer out and down through a crack in the chamber of consciousness and then suspect that man is sustained in the indifference of his ignorance by that which is pitiless, greedy, insatiable, and murderous-as if hanging in dreams on the back of a tiger. Given this situation, where in the world could the drive for truth have come from? Insofar as the individual wants to maintain himself against other individuals, he will under natural circumstances employ the intellect mainly for dissimulation. But at the same time, from boredom and necessity, man wishes to exist socially and with the herd; therefore, he needs to makes peace and strives accordingly to banish from his world at least the most flagrant bellum omni contra omnes. This peace treaty brings in its wake something which appears to be the first step toward a acquiring that puzzling truth drive: to wit, that which shall count as "truth" from now on is established. That is to say, a uniformly valid and binding designation is invented for things, and this legislation of language likewise establishes the first laws of truth. For the contrast between truth and lie arises here for the first time. The liar is a person who uses the valid designations, the words, in order to make something which is unreal appear to be real. He says, for example, "I am rich," when the proper designation for his condition would be "poor." He misuses fixed conventions by means of arbitrary substitutions or even reversals of names. If he does this in a selfish and moreover harmful manner, society will cease to trust him and will thereby exclude him. What men avoid by excluding the liar is not so much being defrauded as it is being harmed by means of fraud. Thus, even at this stage, what they hate is basically not deception itself, but rather the unpleasant, hated consequences of certain sorts of deception. It is in a similarly restricted sense that man now wants nothing but truth: he desires the pleasant, life-preserving consequences of truth. He is indifferent toward pure knowledge which has no consequences; toward those truths which are possibly harmful and destructive he is even hostilely inclined. And besides, what about these linguistic conventions themselves? Are they perhaps products of knowledge, that is, of the sense of truth? Are designations congruent with things? Is language the adequate expression of all realities? It is only by means of forgetfulness that man can ever reach the point of fancying himself to possess a "truth" of the grade just indicated. If he will not be satisfied with truth in the form of tautology, that is to say, if he will not be content with empty husks, then he will always exchange truths for illusions. What is a word? It is the copy in sound of a nerve stimulus. But the further inference from the nerve stimulus to a cause outside of us is already the result of a false and unjustifiable application of the principle of sufficient reason. If truth alone had been the deciding factor in the genesis of language, and if the standpoint of certainty had been decisive for designations, then how could we still dare to say "the stone is hard," as if "hard" were something otherwise familiar to us, and not merely a totally subjective stimulation! We separate things according to gender, designating the tree as masculine and the plant as feminine. What arbitrary assignments! How far this oversteps the canons of certainty! We speak of a "snake": this designation touches only upon its ability to twist itself and could therefore also fit a worm. What arbitrary differentiations! What one-sided preferences, first for this, then for that property of a thing! The various languages placed side by side show that with words it is never a question of truth, never a question of adequate expression; otherwise, there would not be so many languages.
Thus, truth is just a tool to protect our interests. This implies util since statements are true as long as they protect the herd’s interests. This also comes first since other arguments assume what truth is.
() Extinction precedes ethics. Bostrom writes:
Our present understanding of axiology might well be confused. We may not now know— at least not in concrete detail—what outcomes are moral would count as a big win for humanity; we might not even yet be able to imagine the best ends of our journey. If we are indeed profoundly uncertain about our ultimate aims, then we should recognize that there is a great option value in preserving— and ideally improving—our ability to recognize value and to steer the future in accordingly. Ensuring that there will be a future version of humanity with great powers and a propensity to use them wisely is plausibly the best way available to us to increase the probability that the future will contain a lot of value. To do this, we must prevent any existential catastrophe.